US Prelim GDP q/q | May 27, 2016 | Forex Trading

Event Details At-A-Glance:

US Final GDP q/qUS Prelim GDP release is the second release for the 1st quarter of 2016, which is expected to rise from the 0.5% reading on the advanced release.  With the Fed taunting of a “live” meeting in June, any stronger than expected surprise should add to that sentiment.


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8:30am (NY Time) USA Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 0.8% Previous 0.5% (Adv. Q1 GDP)
DEVIATION: 0.3% (BUY USD 1.1% / SELL USD 0.5%)

The Trade Plan 
We are looking for a deviation between 0.3% from the forecasted figure of 0.8%. Therefore if we get a 1.1% on the second quarterly (Q1) 2016 GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD. However, if we get a 0.5% release or worse, then we would be SELLING USD. We’ll be looking to trade this release based on my Retracement Trading Method; since this is a high impact release, strong market volatility is expected immediately after the release.

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I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pair above as it is based on my strength meter by pairing up the best currencies in the event of a better/worse news… or you can just use the default pairs for this news: USDJPY or EURUSD

We’ll be trading this release using an after-news retracement method. For more information on my trading methods, please read:




Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.

“US Prelim GDP, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP number has a direct effect on the Interest rate of the currency, it is one of the news indicators that affects FOMC’s decision directly.”


Currency Pair Stats
2H-50+ = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. | 2H-50 = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. for the last 2 years | Range = average range in 2 hrs. | Direction = % match following news direction | PN30 / PN60 / PN90 = average pips move before news release in 30, 60, or 90 mins. period | Spike = initial average spike