UK Retail Sales should be a good release and similarly to the CPI scheduled earlier this week a strong surprise will surely drive the market for at least a couple of hours, depending on the degree of surprise, of course.
Considering recent economic pressure and uncertainty from “Brexit”, especially looking at past 6 Retail Sales of which 20% met expectation and 50% missed forecast horribly (3 worse than, 1 as expected, and 2 better than expected), today’s release could once again surprise…
4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales Forecast 1.2% Previous -1.8%
The Trade Plan
Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is 0.5%. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour; of course, considering that we are expecting a 1.2% figure, I would recommend to BUY only if the figure is at least positive at 1.7% or better, and SELL only if the figure is below 0.7%.
We´ll be looking for an after-news retracement trade for this release. For more information on my trading methods: http://www.currencynewstrading.com/how-to-get-started-with-news-trading/
I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: GBPUSD.
UK Retail Sales | May 18, 2017 | News Trading Plan
May 14, 2017 by 1 Comment