CA Core CPI | June 23, 2017 | Forex News Trading Plan

Event Details At-A-Glance:
*0.4%0.0%0.3%

CA Core CPI is a high impact release for CAD and since the U.S. Federal Reserve has already started raising interest rates, if we start to see any stronger than expected release out of this event today, market will surely keep that in mind as high inflation is a strong reason for central banks to hike interest rate.

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As of right now, even with the forecast of 0.4%, the year on year reading is only at 1.5%.  With the year on year reading falling since January (2.1%), it is increasingly likely for the central bank to keep rates unchanged for longer, thus if we get a strong positive surprise today, market will surely move on the unexpected.  Obviously for the BOC to even consider a rate hike, they will need to see at least a trend above the 2.0%, which as of right now a difficult task.

Here´s the forecast:

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8:30am CA Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.3%
DEVIATION: 0.3% (BUY CAD 0.7% / SELL CAD 0.1%)

The Trade Plan
The Core CPI report will be released today and our deviation for this release, based on a historical track record, around 0.3%. Therefore, look for tradable figures of 0.1% or worse to SELL CAD, or a 0.7% or better to BUY CAD.

Keep in mind to look for an after-news retracement trade for this release. I´ll wait for the release, then the initial market move, and wait for a decent retracement before jumping in. For more information on my trading methods: http://www.currencynewstrading.com/how-to-get-started-with-news-trading/

I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: USDCAD.

 

 

   

Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.

DEFINITION
“CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households (Wikipedia).” It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.

Our focus is on the Core CPI or CPI ex Energy and Food components, which provides a better picture of inflation without the seasonal factor.

Thanks,




Currency Pair Stats
Pair2H50+2H50RangeDirectionPN30PN60PN90Spike
EURCAD73.0%58.3%7096.5%26364433
USDCAD50.4%25.0%5797.4%17253025
2H-50+ = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. | 2H-50 = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. for the last 2 years | Range = average range in 2 hrs. | Direction = % match following news direction | PN30 / PN60 / PN90 = average pips move before news release in 30, 60, or 90 mins. period | Spike = initial average spike
About Henry Liu

My name is Henry Liu and I am a Forex Trader and Mentor. I help traders achieve consistent income trading Forex while spending less time trading. My focus in trading is a combination of Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, and Market Sentiment. Far too many retail Forex traders concentrate on just one aspect of trading, technical analysis, and ignore everything else; it is my goal (and vision) to educate every trader on how to take advantage of news trading and become more balanced traders.

You can find more information about me on my Google Profile.

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