Greek Crisis Creeps Back To The Center Stage…


(GR) Press reported that the next tranche for Greek aid may be delayed until the middle of September. The EU/IMF/ECB Troika draft indicated that the program there is completely off track. There is no political will to extend the fiscal program. The report indicated that there will be no funds for internal needs until program on track, and no Greek concessions until the full Troika report.

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(GR) Greece Fin Min Stournaras: Greece requires additional €3B in measures for 2012; measures must be decided in weeks.

  • No new decisions expected before Sept.
  • It is very unlikely that Greece will receive an extension or easing of the terms of its bailout at this point.
  • Troika to return to Greece by Tuesday, 24th July.

How to interpret these headlines?

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Greek Crisis is back in the headlines this week, and with the current economic situation in Europe, any more negative headlines are likely to tilt the market to oblivion, thus making any new developments in Greece extremely volatile, to say the least.  Greece’s new coalition government, led by Samaras, sent their policy letter to the EU Council a few weeks ago, requesting 2 years extension on the bailout terms on top of extending unemployment benefits for 2 years (what are they thinking?), and with the Troika delaying the next tranche of aid until mid September, Greece is bound to be back on the headlines before that and the end result could still be a “Grexit”…

I expect to see an eventual Greece exit of the Euro Zone, but with the markets already suffered through the last Greek election, damages from the Greek crisis are likely to be contained, but still considered as substantial.  Of course, Greece alone will not push EURUSD down to the 1.2000, but if you add credit actions by rating agencies, and more noises from Germany on the use of ESM funds to recapitalize banks, then you may have the perfect recipe for a sharp Euro sell offs…  All in all, this new development strengthens my view to SELL EURUSD on rally.

 

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About Henry Liu

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