FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is keen to keep its asset purchases open-ended rather than setting a potentially distant date on which bond-buying will stop, to retain flexibility in case the outlook sours, three sources familiar with the discussion said.
By not saying when its net bond purchases will fall to zero, the ECB hopes to underline that there is no preset course for its stimulus program, and that any changes remain dependent on economic data, with a special focus on wages, the sources added.
They held up the Federal Reserve's exit from its asset buying in 2014 as a potential blueprint, noting the U.S. central bank's unwillingness to publicly target an end-date.
"The Fed has done the most successful exit so it's the example for us to study," said a source who asked not to be named. "The important thing is not to pre-commit and keep it very gradual."
ECB President Mario Draghi sent a shockwave through markets earlier this month when he opened the door to potential tweaks to the quantitative easing program. That left investors scrutinizing any potential clues to the bank's next move, which is expected to come at its Sept. 7 meeting.
ECB policymakers also meet next Thursday.
Half of analysts polled by Reuters now expect the ECB to announce in September that it will gradually wind down its asset buying, a process known as tapering, while a quarter see a one-off reduction and another quarter expect no change.
So far, the ECB has said its purchases are intended to run at their current pace until December 2017 "or beyond, if necessary" and that there would be winding-down phase after that.
The biggest challenge could be convincing markets that tapering, once started, may still be subject to change.
While the Fed emphasized the open-ended nature of its bond purchases, it scaled back the amount it bought by $10 billion at each meeting, creating the perception that it was on a preset course even if that notion was taboo.
The Fed announced its first reduction in December 2013 and ended buys the following October. Its policymakers keenly avoided the discussion of an end-date throughout the tapering process, even if markets inferred it and were eventually proven right.
The sources noted that adopting a similar strategy risked entrapping the ECB by making it difficult to deviate from a presumed schedule without generating undue market volatility.
ECB wary of setting end-date to its asset purchases program
July 14, 2017 by Leave a Comment