NZ CPI q/q | July 17, 2017 | Forex News Analysis

Event Details At-A-Glance:

NZ CPI is a quarterly release and there is definite room for surprise as traders might not get this figure right on first try.  Obviously previous release of 1.0% is a shockingly high figure, with the majority of increases on essential food prices (2.2% increase), Household utilities (3.3% gain) and Transport (3.5% gain).  This means even if we were to get inline or slight less figure, I believe inflationary pressure is still going to be there, and likely to pressure RBNZ to continue their tightening policy, or at least kick start it somewhat.


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In short, I am still rather bullish on the NZD, unless we get a negative figure, which means market sentiment could change from long to short quickly.

6:45pm (NY Time) NZ CPI q/q Forecast 0.2% Previous 1.0%
DEVIATION: 0.3% (BUY NZD 0.5% / SELL NZD -0.1%)

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The Basic Plan
Our focus will be on the headline CPI number. If we get a better release of 0.5%, we should be looking to BUY NZD; if we get a lower release -0.1%, then we’ll see NZD move down. Usually if our BUY or SELL figures are hit, we could expect the market to move about 40~50 pips within the next 30~90 minutes.

For my news trading methods, please watch this 3-part instruction video:

I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: NZDUSD.




Outlook Score Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.

DEFINITION: “The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation’s currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and will usually have a high impact upon release.”


Currency Pair Stats
2H-50+ = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. | 2H-50 = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. for the last 2 years | Range = average range in 2 hrs. | Direction = % match following news direction | PN30 / PN60 / PN90 = average pips move before news release in 30, 60, or 90 mins. period | Spike = initial average spike
About Henry Liu

My name is Henry Liu and I am a Forex Trader and Mentor. I help traders achieve consistent income trading Forex while spending less time trading. My focus in trading is a combination of Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, and Market Sentiment. Far too many retail Forex traders concentrate on just one aspect of trading, technical analysis, and ignore everything else; it is my goal (and vision) to educate every trader on how to take advantage of news trading and become more balanced traders.

You can find more information about me on my Google Profile.

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