AU Employment Change | July 19, 2017 | Currency Analysis

Event Details At-A-Glance:
14.0K15.3K42.0K25K

The Australian Employment Change release today will provide market momentum for the AUD and considering recent positive support in the currency, any strong readings today will add to that momentum and potentially change our outlook and forecast for future AUD trades.

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In short, right now we are looking to BUY on dips, if we were to get a favorable figure, we could turn this news short term trade into a long term trade as AUD could be gearing for a breakout.

9:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change Forecast 15.3K Previous 42.0K
9:30pm (NY Time) AU Unemployment Rate Forecast 5.6% Previous 5.5%
DEVIATION: 25K (BUY AUD @ +40.3K / SELL AUD @ -9.7
K)

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The Trade Plan
The deviation that we are looking for is at least of 25K. Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 40~50 pips of movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time. Expect to see the effect of this news to last minimum 45 minutes to 2 hours; typical news effect should last under 2 hours. One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to remain at 5.6%. If we don´t get a conflict with the Employment Change, then we will proceed with the trading plan.

We´ll look to trade this using after news retracement trading method, we´ll wait for the market to retrace and stay out of the market during the release time. If we get a +40.3 of release, our bias will be to BUY AUD against other currencies; if we get a -9.7K of release, our bias will be to SELL AUD against stronger currencies. We´ll only enter after we see a decent retracement from the initial spike and if we get those release numbers…

For more information on my trading methods: http://www.currencynewstrading.com/how-to-get-started-with-news-trading/

I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: AUDUSD.

 

 

   

Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.

DEFINITION
“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”

Thanks,




Currency Pair Stats
Pair2H50+2H50RangeDirectionPN30PN60PN90Spike
AUDJPY40.7%41.7%5194.4%17212735
AUDUSD42.6%75.0%5294.4%13172036
2H-50+ = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. | 2H-50 = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. for the last 2 years | Range = average range in 2 hrs. | Direction = % match following news direction | PN30 / PN60 / PN90 = average pips move before news release in 30, 60, or 90 mins. period | Spike = initial average spike
About Henry Liu

My name is Henry Liu and I am a Forex Trader and Mentor. I help traders achieve consistent income trading Forex while spending less time trading. My focus in trading is a combination of Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, and Market Sentiment. Far too many retail Forex traders concentrate on just one aspect of trading, technical analysis, and ignore everything else; it is my goal (and vision) to educate every trader on how to take advantage of news trading and become more balanced traders.

You can find more information about me on my Google Profile.

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