UK Retail Sales should be a good release for the Sterling and our view still remains unchanged as to the long-term view of GBP is a BUY on dip, especially considering recent hawkish comments out of BOE.
Of course, at the time of writing this analysis we don’t have the CPI reading yet. If the CPI reading on Tuesday were to disappoint, then all bets are off for GBP long as traders would expect a more prolonged delay for BOE to discuss rate hikes in light of lesser inflationary pressure.
4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous -1.2%
The Trade Plan
Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is 0.5%. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour; of course, considering that we are expecting a 0.3% figure, I would recommend to BUY only if the figure is at least positive at 08% or better, and SELL only if the figure is below -0.2%.
We´ll be looking for an after-news retracement trade for this release. For more information on my trading methods: http://www.currencynewstrading.com/how-to-get-started-with-news-trading/
I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: GBPUSD.
UK Retail Sales | July 20, 2017 | News Trading Plan
July 16, 2017 by Leave a Comment