UK Retail Sales | July 20, 2017 | News Trading Plan

Event Details At-A-Glance:
0.6%0.3%-1.2%0.5%

UK Retail Sales should be a good release for the Sterling and our view still remains unchanged as to the long-term view of GBP is a BUY on dip, especially considering recent hawkish comments out of BOE.

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Of course, at the time of writing this analysis we don’t have the CPI reading yet.  If the CPI reading on Tuesday were to disappoint, then all bets are off for GBP long as traders would expect a more prolonged delay for BOE to discuss rate hikes in light of lesser inflationary pressure.

4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous -1.2%
DEVIATION: 0.5% (BUY GBP 0.8% / SELL GBP -0.2%)

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The Trade Plan
The monthly retail sales report is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail level. A higher release is generally good for the economy, and better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered negative for the economy and not good for it´s currency.

Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is 0.5%. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour; of course, considering that we are expecting a 0.3% figure, I would recommend to BUY only if the figure is at least positive at 08% or better, and SELL only if the figure is below -0.2%.

We´ll be looking for an after-news retracement trade for this release. For more information on my trading methods: http://www.currencynewstrading.com/how-to-get-started-with-news-trading/

I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: GBPUSD.

 

 

   

Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.

Definition
UK Retail Sales 
measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders payclose attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.

Thanks,




Currency Pair Stats
Pair2H50+2H50RangeDirectionPN30PN60PN90Spike
GBPCHF78.1%54.2%7994.7%35516342
GBPJPY69.3%29.2%7894.7%35486141
GBPUSD69.3%70.8%6994.7%29404940
EURGBP10.5%4.2%2994.7%11162117
2H-50+ = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. | 2H-50 = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. for the last 2 years | Range = average range in 2 hrs. | Direction = % match following news direction | PN30 / PN60 / PN90 = average pips move before news release in 30, 60, or 90 mins. period | Spike = initial average spike
About Henry Liu

My name is Henry Liu and I am a Forex Trader and Mentor. I help traders achieve consistent income trading Forex while spending less time trading. My focus in trading is a combination of Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, and Market Sentiment. Far too many retail Forex traders concentrate on just one aspect of trading, technical analysis, and ignore everything else; it is my goal (and vision) to educate every trader on how to take advantage of news trading and become more balanced traders.

You can find more information about me on my Google Profile.

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