CA Core CPI | July 21, 2017 | Forex News Trading

Event Details At-A-Glance:
0.1%0.1%0.0%0.3%

CA Core CPI is a high impact release for CAD and as stated in the other CA analysis (Retail Sales), both releases are scheduled at the same time which will make trading today a bit complicated to say the least.

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Since CPI is a direct measure of inflation, and inflation is what Central Banks gauge when adjusting their interest rates, a strong release will have a long-term impact whereas a weak release will take pressure off, sort to speak.

Obviously with Crude Oil prices stabilized, market is going to pay closer attention to the economy, and this release is definitely one of the most watched for CAD.

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Here´s the forecast:

8:30am CA Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.0% Previous 0.1%
DEVIATION: 0.3% (BUY CAD 0.3% / SELL CAD -0.3%)

The Trade Plan
The Core CPI report will be released today and our deviation for this release, based on a historical track record, around 0.3%. Therefore, look for tradable figures of -0.3% or worse to SELL CAD, or a 0.3% or better to BUY CAD.

Keep in mind to look for an after-news retracement trade for this release. I´ll wait for the release, then the initial market move, and wait for a decent retracement before jumping in. For more information on my trading methods: http://www.currencynewstrading.com/how-to-get-started-with-news-trading/

I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: USDCAD.

 

 

   

Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.

DEFINITION
“CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households (Wikipedia).” It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.

Our focus is on the Core CPI or CPI ex Energy and Food components, which provides a better picture of inflation without the seasonal factor.

Thanks,




Currency Pair Stats
Pair2H50+2H50RangeDirectionPN30PN60PN90Spike
EURCAD73.0%58.3%7096.5%26364433
USDCAD50.4%25.0%5797.4%17253025
2H-50+ = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. | 2H-50 = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. for the last 2 years | Range = average range in 2 hrs. | Direction = % match following news direction | PN30 / PN60 / PN90 = average pips move before news release in 30, 60, or 90 mins. period | Spike = initial average spike
About Henry Liu

My name is Henry Liu and I am a Forex Trader and Mentor. I help traders achieve consistent income trading Forex while spending less time trading. My focus in trading is a combination of Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, and Market Sentiment. Far too many retail Forex traders concentrate on just one aspect of trading, technical analysis, and ignore everything else; it is my goal (and vision) to educate every trader on how to take advantage of news trading and become more balanced traders.

You can find more information about me on my Google Profile.

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