US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment | August 4, 2017 | Currency News

Event Details At-A-Glance:
209K183K222K70K

US NFP is expected to be around 183K, and considering the Fed’s meeting minutes (market has priced dovish stance for the time being), I would expect sentiment change if we hit our buy target of 253K.  However, if the opposite is true, 113K being the release figure, traders will take the first chance to dump USD without any hesitations.

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Obviously employment is a strong part of the economy, but with Fed already acknowledging that Employment is doing good, it will take a strong surprise to really change market sentiment.

8:30am (NY Time) US NF Employment Forecast 183K Previous 222K
8:30am (NY Time) US Unemployment Rate Forecast 4.3% Previous 4.4%

Deviation: 70K (BUY USD 253K / SELL USD 113K)

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The Trade Plan
Today’s NFP Employment Change release is forecasted at 183K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to be at 4.3%. If we get a significantly lower release on the NFP (113K or worse) and slightly higher Unemployment Rate (4.3% or more), I´d be looking to SELL the USD against stronger currencies as speculation for Feds to further delay the next rate hike. On the other hand, if we get a strong NFP release (253K or better) and the Unemployment Rate falls or remain at 4.3%, USD could strengthen and I would BUY USD against other weaker currencies (use CSM or recommended pairs above).

If we get a conflicting release, then well wait and see how the market reacts first. If there is an overwhelming sentiment driving the market, well get plenty of opportunities for an entry if we just wait for 5 minutes after the release; you´ll get a much clearer view.

 

 

   

Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.

TO BE UPDATED ON August 3, 2017 – Please Signup Newsletter For Timely Analysis Prior To The Release…

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NFP Trading Strategy
Let´s talk about how to trade this release: We´ll wait for the numbers to come out but continue to hold on a trade, Even if we get our tradable figures (253K to 113K). Wait for a possible revision of the previous release number of 222K, and market usually overreacts with the Revision and chances favor that a solid trade will present itself if we don’t get a conflicting releases between the revision and the actual release; at this point, still stay out of the market.

Then the next step is to wait for the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to be at 4.3%. If the Unemployment Rate were to surprise higher, we’ll have to make a decision based on the market sentiment coming into this release… Of course, if Unemployment rate were to fall below 4.0%, then we should see a surge in USD as traders speculate Fed accelerate rate hiking process.

After all of the numbers have been released, wait for the market to push and wait patiently for a decent retracement before getting in. Look for recent support/resistance areas for entry as a high impact news with various components are extremely volatile, and those who are patient will always get a chance to enter with a much better entry.

DEFINITION
US NFP Employment measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.

Thanks,




Currency Pair Stats
Pair2H50+2H50RangeDirectionPN30PN60PN90Spike
AUDUSD57.0%83.3%6295.8%12151930
EURUSD93.0%100.0%10295.8%16212552
GBPUSD88.7%87.5%10495.8%22283451
NZDUSD61.0%79.2%6094.9%13172027
USDCAD72.5%70.8%7496.5%19254031
USDCHF95.8%87.5%10895.8%18242954
USDJPY73.2%66.7%8194.4%14182245
2H-50+ = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. | 2H-50 = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. for the last 2 years | Range = average range in 2 hrs. | Direction = % match following news direction | PN30 / PN60 / PN90 = average pips move before news release in 30, 60, or 90 mins. period | Spike = initial average spike
About Henry Liu

My name is Henry Liu and I am a Forex Trader and Mentor. I help traders achieve consistent income trading Forex while spending less time trading. My focus in trading is a combination of Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, and Market Sentiment. Far too many retail Forex traders concentrate on just one aspect of trading, technical analysis, and ignore everything else; it is my goal (and vision) to educate every trader on how to take advantage of news trading and become more balanced traders.

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