US NFP is expected to be around 183K, and considering the Fed’s meeting minutes (market has priced dovish stance for the time being), I would expect sentiment change if we hit our buy target of 253K. However, if the opposite is true, 113K being the release figure, traders will take the first chance to dump USD without any hesitations.
Obviously employment is a strong part of the economy, but with Fed already acknowledging that Employment is doing good, it will take a strong surprise to really change market sentiment.
8:30am (NY Time) US NF Employment Forecast 183K Previous 222K
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If we get a conflicting release, then well wait and see how the market reacts first. If there is an overwhelming sentiment driving the market, well get plenty of opportunities for an entry if we just wait for 5 minutes after the release; you´ll get a much clearer view.
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NFP Trading Strategy
Then the next step is to wait for the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to be at 4.3%. If the Unemployment Rate were to surprise higher, we’ll have to make a decision based on the market sentiment coming into this release… Of course, if Unemployment rate were to fall below 4.0%, then we should see a surge in USD as traders speculate Fed accelerate rate hiking process.
After all of the numbers have been released, wait for the market to push and wait patiently for a decent retracement before getting in. Look for recent support/resistance areas for entry as a high impact news with various components are extremely volatile, and those who are patient will always get a chance to enter with a much better entry.
US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment | August 4, 2017 | Currency News
July 31, 2017 by Leave a Comment