AU Retail Sales | October 4, 2017 | Currency Trading

Event Details At-A-Glance:
-0.6%0.3%0.0%0.5%

AU Retail Sales release may provide a trading opportunity but I’d recommend using caution and pay close attention to the Trade Balance figure scheduled at the same time.  Although that release is not considered “tradable”, any extreme figures will confuse the market and depend on the current sentiment, we could see whipsaws as AUDUSD trade all over the place.

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The solution is to wait for the first retracement before taking the trade.  If there is a consensus with both releases, then we should see market pushing to the same direction even after a bit of profit taking (retracement).

8:30 pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.0%
DEVIATION: 0.5% (BUY AUD 0.8% / SELL AUD -0.2%)

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The Trade Plan
The deviation that we are looking for the Australian Retail Sales m/m release is for a minimum of 0.5%. If we get a 0.8% (or better) we´ll look to buy and if we get -0.2% (or worse), we’d look to SELL. There is a high probability of market movement of over 50 pips in the next 2 hours if we get our deviation.

We´ll be looking for an after-news retracement trade and we´ll do the 3 W´s. Wait for the deviation, Wait for the market to move with momentum first, and Wait for a decent retracement. For more information on my trading methods, please read: http://www.currencynewstrading.com/how-to-get-started-with-news-trading/

I’d recommend trading the Recommended Pairs above as they are based on my CSM and should provide you with an edge by pairing up the best currencies to trade in the event of a good/bad news. Of course, you can also trade the default pair: AUDUSD

 

 

   

Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is an opposite.

DEFINITION
“Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.”

Thanks,




Currency Pair Stats
Pair2H50+2H50RangeDirectionPN30PN60PN90Spike
AUDJPY26.4%16.7%4196.2%19253022
AUDUSD22.6%20.8%3696.2%14202422
2H-50+ = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. | 2H-50 = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. for the last 2 years | Range = average range in 2 hrs. | Direction = % match following news direction | PN30 / PN60 / PN90 = average pips move before news release in 30, 60, or 90 mins. period | Spike = initial average spike
About Henry Liu

My name is Henry Liu and I am a Forex Trader and Mentor. I help traders achieve consistent income trading Forex while spending less time trading. My focus in trading is a combination of Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, and Market Sentiment. Far too many retail Forex traders concentrate on just one aspect of trading, technical analysis, and ignore everything else; it is my goal (and vision) to educate every trader on how to take advantage of news trading and become more balanced traders.

You can find more information about me on my Google Profile.

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