US Core Retail Sales | October 13, 2017 | Forex Trading

Event Details At-A-Glance:
1.0%0.9%0.2%0.5%

US Core Retail Sales is a high impact tradable release and should provide a good opportunity to trade if we get our tradable deviation.  Considering the recent NFP reading was a huge disappointment, not mentioning that previous one also tanked, today’s Retail Sales is going to take a miracle to beat expectations if you were to ask me…

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Here´s the forecast:

8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.9% Previous 0.2%
DEVIATION: 0.5% (BUY USD 1.4% / SELL USD 0.4%)

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The Trade Plan
The plan to trade this release is straightforward. We are going to wait for 1.4% release or better to BUY USD, or a 0.4% or worse to SELL USD. If we get an in-between release, we´ll need to look at the pre-release market condition and sentiment in order to make a decision, or just stay out of the market altogether.

We will trade this news release using after news retracement method, I will pay attention to both headline and Core Retail Sales figures, but my focus will be on the Core figure. Remember to use the recommended pair above and verify the pairs to trade 1 minute before the release, or you can just use the default pair of USDJPY or EURUSD.

For more information on my trading method: http://www.currencynewstrading.com/how-to-get-started-with-news-trading/

I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: EURUSD.

 

 

   

Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is an opposite.

DEFINITION
“(Retail Sales Core) Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.”

Thanks,




Currency Pair Stats
Pair2H50+2H50RangeDirectionPN30PN60PN90Spike
AUDUSD28.4%45.8%4096.5%14192412
EURUSD56.7%70.8%6296.5%18252922
GBPUSD66.7%45.8%6897.2%22313723
NZDUSD17.9%12.5%3896.6%14192311
USDCAD46.1%20.8%5495.7%19263115
USDCHF64.5%41.7%6796.5%19263122
USDJPY41.1%16.7%4996.5%14192418
2H-50+ = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. | 2H-50 = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. for the last 2 years | Range = average range in 2 hrs. | Direction = % match following news direction | PN30 / PN60 / PN90 = average pips move before news release in 30, 60, or 90 mins. period | Spike = initial average spike
About Henry Liu

My name is Henry Liu and I am a Forex Trader and Mentor. I help traders achieve consistent income trading Forex while spending less time trading. My focus in trading is a combination of Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, and Market Sentiment. Far too many retail Forex traders concentrate on just one aspect of trading, technical analysis, and ignore everything else; it is my goal (and vision) to educate every trader on how to take advantage of news trading and become more balanced traders.

You can find more information about me on my Google Profile.

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