IMF UPDATES WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: Downside risk to global economy continues to loom large:
2012 GDP OUTLOOK:
2013 GDP OUTLOOK:
How to interpret these headlines?
Market has been expecting downgrade this week after IMF Chief Lagarde commented on the global growth outlook last week… IMF continues to warn U.S., Europe, and China on potential adverse scenarios, while upgrades Japan’s GDP outlook for 2012. I think we’ll probably see the fundamental markets for the rest of the year behave similarly to this report, mostly driven by risk aversion scenarios. JPY will probably remain strong as BOJ is unwilling to increase their balance sheet, and when you consider that most traders just want safety rather than return in a weak global economic environment, Yen is probably the best choice.
I would be very careful on selling JPY moving forward, except against USD as both USD and JPY are considered as safe-haven currencies; at any rate, USD and JPY are probably going to remain bullish throughout.
IMF Downgrades Global Growth Outlook Citing Risks Continue To Loom Large…
July 16, 2012 by Leave a Comment