UK Prelim GDP q/q is a first GDP release for the Q4 of 2017 period, and since it is the first release for the quarter it is also the most likely to surprise the market, thus adding more volatility if we were to get a surprise. I’d wait for the release before taking any position on the GBP as this is a major one for the currency.
Considering recent hawkishness in the economy and the start of interest rate tightening cycle by the BOE, a stronger than expected release should spark another sentiment shift into more demand for GBP, therefore we could see a persistent and lasting support for currency.
4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.4%
The Trade Plan
We´ll still be looking to trade the release using ours after news retracement method. Our surprise factor is around 0.3% as we´ll look to possibly SELL GBP at 0.1% or worse, and BUY GBP at 0.7% or better.
Historically, if there is an 80% of chance that our S. Factor hits, the market will move up to 50~70 pips within the hour as GDP is a very high impact report.
For more information on my news trading methods: http://www.currencynewstrading.com/how-to-get-started-with-news-trading/
I’d recommend using the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: GBPUSD.
UK Prelim GDP q/q | January 26, 2018 | Currency Trading
January 21, 2018 by Leave a Comment