US Advanced GDP (Q4) | January 26, 2018 | Currency News Trading

Event Details At-A-Glance:
2.6%3.0%3.2%0.3%

Because this is the first quarterly release for the 4th quarter of 2017, we are likely to see huge market reactions today, especially if we get at least 0.2% of deviation.  Considering the first release is most likely to surprise the market, I’d sit on the sidelines and stay out of the market until after the news.

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Obviously, I’d recommend not to go against the trend, as USD has been under pressure lately.  With the market still not too positive over the USD, I will only BUY if we have a strong reason to.

Here is the forecast for the US Adv. GDP q/q (Q4 2017)

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8:30 am (NY Time) US Advanced GDP q/q Forecast 3.0% Previous 3.2% (Final Q3 GDP)
DEVIATION: 0.2% (BUY USD 3.2% / SELL USD 2.8%)

The Trade Plan
We are looking for a deviation between 0.2% ~ 0.3% from the forecasted figure of 3.0%. Therefore if we get a 3.2% in the 4th quarter (Q4) 2017 GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD. However, if we get a 2.8% release or worse, then we would be SELLING USD. We’ll be looking to trade this release based on my Retracement Trading Method; since this is a high impact release, strong market volatility is expected immediately after the release.

I’d recommend using the Recommended Pair above as it is based on my strength meter by pairing up the best currencies in the event of a better/worse news… or you can just use the default pairs for this news: USDJPY or EURUSD

We’ll be trading this release using an after-news retracement method. For more information on my trading methods, please read:
http://www.currencynewstrading.com/how-to-get-started-with-news-trading/

 

 

   

Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is an opposite.

DEFINITION:
“GDP, which is defined (by Wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP number has a direct effect on the Interest rate of the currency, it is one of the news indicators that affect FOMC’s decision directly.”

Thanks,




Currency Pair Stats
Pair2H50+2H50RangeDirectionPN30PN60PN90Spike
AUDUSD23.7%29.2%3999.3%12172211
EURUSD54.7%70.8%5999.3%17242919
GBPUSD74.1%70.8%7299.3%22324020
NZDUSD15.7%12.5%3899.1%12172210
USDCAD50.4%33.3%5399.3%19263115
USDCHF56.8%45.8%6399.3%18263120
USDJPY27.3%16.7%4498.6%15202415
2H-50+ = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. | 2H-50 = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. for the last 2 years | Range = average range in 2 hrs. | Direction = % match following news direction | PN30 / PN60 / PN90 = average pips move before news release in 30, 60, or 90 mins. period | Spike = initial average spike
About Henry Liu

My name is Henry Liu and I am a Forex Trader and Mentor. I help traders achieve consistent income trading Forex while spending less time trading. My focus in trading is a combination of Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, and Market Sentiment. Far too many retail Forex traders concentrate on just one aspect of trading, technical analysis, and ignore everything else; it is my goal (and vision) to educate every trader on how to take advantage of news trading and become more balanced traders.

You can find more information about me on my Google Profile.

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