US ADP Non-Farm Payroll Changes 09/30/09


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8:15am (NY Time) US ADP NFP Changes Forecast -200K Previous -298K


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Leads the government-released employment data by 2 days, and has slowly demonstrated its predictive qualities since its May 2006 debut. Source changed the calculation methodology in Feb 2007 and Dec 2008 to better align with the government’s data. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. ADP provides payroll services to many corporations in the US. They use the data collected from their customers to derive the overall employment estimations.

UPDATE: Release was a conflict with worse than expected Actual Figure but backwards revision up. If we add all of the numbers we’ll see that it was about 30K of difference, therefore it was a no trade…

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