[VIDEO] Forex News Trading & Long Term Fundamental Implications…


I just wanted to share this video from the Australian CPI q/q release on 7/27, this is a news event that could change the long term trend for the AUD.

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Far too many traders focus just on the technical aspect of trading, and those who do news trading, only focus on the short-term, or the first 30 minutes after the release. But the real potential for a news release such as the CPI is the long term effect, and it could generate hundreds of pips in the next few days/weeks. (Even if AUD/USD remains resilient, at the time of writing this analysis, AUD/USD has already dropped below the 0.8900 once, giving up at least 50+ pips of profit from my original entry.)

In this video I showed my entry, my analysis, and what to expect in the next week or so. This is the type of trade that I prefer, and I hope you guys enjoy this brief analysis. Due to the video limitations on Youtube, I have to cut down this release to under 10 minutes, but I’ll give you guys a brief rundown here:

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AUD CPI came out worse than expected at 0.6%, the yearly CPI is at 3.1%, which is right around RBA’s inflation target. Credit Suisse is pricing in about 31% of rate hike on August 3 pre-release, now the probability of a rate hike has dropped down to under 11%. Basically it means RBA will not hike rates, at least not during this meeting.

This new development gives us a new opportunity, as if there are no expectations for a rate hike, market is not likely to hold on to the AUD. From now until the rate decision, we could see AUD/USD drop to the 0.8650 level, and all we need is another news catalyst to push that… So by understanding the fundamental implications, you can:

1. Stay on the right side of the market.
2. Take advantage of this sentiment and SELL AUD.

So I hope this pretty much explains it.

In my opinion you don’t need a degree in economics to be able to take advantage of fundamental analysis. All you need to know is what news releases you should pay attention to, and I’ll try to point them out to you. If you keep an open mind and see the nature of the market, you’ll soon realize that it is not as random or unpredictable as you might once thought.

If you like this analysis, please share them on Facebook and reTweet to your followers.

About Henry Liu

My name is Henry Liu and I am a Forex Trader and Mentor. I help traders achieve consistent income trading Forex while spending less time trading. My focus in trading is a combination of Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, and Market Sentiment. Far too many retail Forex traders concentrate on just one aspect of trading, technical analysis, and ignore everything else; it is my goal (and vision) to educate every trader on how to take advantage of news trading and become more balanced traders.

You can find more information about me on my Google Profile.

Comments

  1. Henry … Maybe this post might be good for a revision.

    • Long term fundamental for AUD remains unchaged. USD is however, weaker than AUD and that’s why are are seeing no decline in the pair.

      • Do you suggest getting out of this pair before the NFP news or staying in it? Entered at 89.6 waiting for the pair to reverse trend..

        • Market has already gone over the 0.9100 I think it’s time to minimize your loss. However, if you are holding on a very small position, then maybe you can wAit it outs the market is definitely looking at a top right now.

  2. Henry … Maybe this post might be good for a revision.

    • Long term fundamental for AUD remains unchaged. USD is however, weaker than AUD and that’s why are are seeing no decline in the pair.

      • Do you suggest getting out of this pair before the NFP news or staying in it? Entered at 89.6 waiting for the pair to reverse trend..

        • Market has already gone over the 0.9100 I think it’s time to minimize your loss. However, if you are holding on a very small position, then maybe you can wAit it outs the market is definitely looking at a top right now.

  3. Hi again Henry,
    Love your analysis as usual.
    Do you still use a demo account to trade?

  4. Hi again Henry,
    Love your analysis as usual.
    Do you still use a demo account to trade?

  5. Henry,
    I really appreciate your concise coverage and recommendations. However, on the most recent long-term SELL AUD recommendation, I misjudged the entry point and entered AUDUSD at 89.6. The pair then promptly went up to nearly 90.4. Your You-Tube video talked about trying to analyze the best entry point, but it would be most helpful if you could provide a little more guidance on this point in the future. I’m holding on the my “long” AUDUSD position into next week. Please keep us informed if you feel that we need to consider any new situation that might arise that would affect this pair. Thank you again!

    Rich

    • Just take a view from a longer term and you’ll see what took place in the last 10~12 hours may not even be relevant in the long run.

      • Henry,

        If the upcoming US GDP news turns out to be bad on Friday, how much do you think this news would effect the long term trade for the AUDUSD for upcoming week? Should I get out of the trade now if I entered at around 89.6 or just ride it out? Thanks.

        Harry

        • If it is really bad, then expect USD to strengthen as world economy will be in shock. Even a riskier currency like AUD should drop. If the GDP is good, then expect some strength in the USD and some risk appetite sentiment, AUD/USD should not be affect much. Of course we need to see the after market reaction to be sure, but I’d look for 90.60 as my exit if anything.

  6. Henry,
    I really appreciate your concise coverage and recommendations. However, on the most recent long-term SELL AUD recommendation, I misjudged the entry point and entered AUDUSD at 89.6. The pair then promptly went up to nearly 90.4. Your You-Tube video talked about trying to analyze the best entry point, but it would be most helpful if you could provide a little more guidance on this point in the future. I’m holding on the my “long” AUDUSD position into next week. Please keep us informed if you feel that we need to consider any new situation that might arise that would affect this pair. Thank you again!

    Rich

    • Just take a view from a longer term and you’ll see what took place in the last 10~12 hours may not even be relevant in the long run.

      • Henry,

        If the upcoming US GDP news turns out to be bad on Friday, how much do you think this news would effect the long term trade for the AUDUSD for upcoming week? Should I get out of the trade now if I entered at around 89.6 or just ride it out? Thanks.

        Harry

        • If it is really bad, then expect USD to strengthen as world economy will be in shock. Even a riskier currency like AUD should drop. If the GDP is good, then expect some strength in the USD and some risk appetite sentiment, AUD/USD should not be affect much. Of course we need to see the after market reaction to be sure, but I’d look for 90.60 as my exit if anything.

  7. Yemi Ogundare says:

    Henry,
    I would say you are my MENTOR.
    I must confess my failure in trading is lack of adherence to free fundamental news youb release to my mail box almost everyday.
    Since I have decided to trade only the news sent to my box, i have seen a lot of changes in my trading live.
    I am now confident to fund my account and continue to trade only news you send to my box in the partern I deduced myself.
    I really appreciate your kind gesture and I am planning to undergo your complete mentoring programm.

    My best regard,
    Darkem

  8. Yemi Ogundare says:

    Henry,
    I would say you are my MENTOR.
    I must confess my failure in trading is lack of adherence to free fundamental news youb release to my mail box almost everyday.
    Since I have decided to trade only the news sent to my box, i have seen a lot of changes in my trading live.
    I am now confident to fund my account and continue to trade only news you send to my box in the partern I deduced myself.
    I really appreciate your kind gesture and I am planning to undergo your complete mentoring programm.

    My best regard,
    Darkem

  9. Henry,

    This one was right on the money. You could not have a better prediction of market behavior based on actual deviations. I had to leave15 minutes prior to the release due to an emergency. However when i came
    back i had a gain of 48 pips due to a sell stop at 8985. Exactly because you correctly predicted the
    sell off in case of a strong negative deviation…
    Thank you so much

    John

  10. Henry,

    This one was right on the money. You could not have a better prediction of market behavior based on actual deviations. I had to leave15 minutes prior to the release due to an emergency. However when i came
    back i had a gain of 48 pips due to a sell stop at 8985. Exactly because you correctly predicted the
    sell off in case of a strong negative deviation…
    Thank you so much

    John

  11. Henry,

    This one was right on the money. You could not have a better prediction of market behavior based on actual deviations. I had to leave15 minutes prior to the release due to an emergency. However when i came
    back i had a gain of 48 pips due to a sell stop at 8985. Exactly because you correctly predicted the
    sell off in case of a strong negative deviation…
    Thank you so much

  12. Henry,

    This one was right on the money. You could not have a better prediction of market behavior based on actual deviations. I had to leave15 minutes prior to the release due to an emergency. However when i came
    back i had a gain of 48 pips due to a sell stop at 8985. Exactly because you correctly predicted the
    sell off in case of a strong negative deviation…
    Thank you so much

  13. i love your analysis! it awesome i made so much pips on the cad news we traded last week and you are so good with your analysis that even a dumb trader will understand thanks for sharing

  14. i love your analysis! it awesome i made so much pips on the cad news we traded last week and you are so good with your analysis that even a dumb trader will understand thanks for sharing

  15. ahmed kabir says:

    i know you are a pro_trader ,am having problem trading technical,is it possible 4me to trade with you tehnically

  16. ahmed kabir says:

    i know you are a pro_trader ,am having problem trading technical,is it possible 4me to trade with you tehnically

  17. The site I am happy together

  18. The site I am happy together

  19. Fidelis E.Onwuzurike says:

    I love and enjoy your posts because it works for new traders like us.Please,keep it up and God bless you more and more.YOU are doing fine.
    Thanks.

  20. Fidelis E.Onwuzurike says:

    I love and enjoy your posts because it works for new traders like us.Please,keep it up and God bless you more and more.YOU are doing fine.
    Thanks.

  21. Atere Olusegun says:

    Hi Henry, Just to thank you once again for the good job you are doing with your Fundamental Analysis. You have significantly boosted my confidence. I took this trade with you following your analysis and when I saw the result, I immediately sold the AUD/USD and made over 300 pips. I watched with amazement as the AUD/USD dropped just like you said.

    Thanks and warm regards to your family

  22. Atere Olusegun says:

    Hi Henry, Just to thank you once again for the good job you are doing with your Fundamental Analysis. You have significantly boosted my confidence. I took this trade with you following your analysis and when I saw the result, I immediately sold the AUD/USD and made over 300 pips. I watched with amazement as the AUD/USD dropped just like you said.

    Thanks and warm regards to your family

  23. S Thanki says:

    Sorry I could not find Video on this page.

    Can you please help me and show me the location to reach Video?

  24. S Thanki says:

    Sorry I could not find Video on this page.

    Can you please help me and show me the location to reach Video?

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