GREXIT: Sum Of All Fears…

(GR) Former Greek PM Papademos indicated there is a real risk Greece would exit the euro given the increasingly apparent political stalemate surrounding austerity rejection. Papademos did suggest that the pain of the “grexit” would be worse than heeding lender demands and subsequently clarified his position that no preparations for an exit were taking place, but the damage had been done…


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(EU) Renewed reports circulated ECB was setting up team to deal with possibly worsening of Greek crisis.

(EU) ECB’s Lipstok: ECB Refi Rate below 1.0% is technically possible but has not been discussed; ECB has never officially discussed a Greek exit from EMU.

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(DE) German Bundesbank: Euro Zone can handle Greek exit but it will be challenging; Current developments in Greece are a concern; Reiterates that must not renegotiate or weaken the Greek bailout package.

How to interpret these headlines?

As we can clearly see, concerns over the EU collapse from Greece exiting the EMU have once again risen as the primary driver of Euro sell-offs today.  With market flows to the safe-haven currencies and the increased volatility in European currencies, I believe EURUSD is now set to the 1.2000 level, especially if these kind of sentiments were to continue.

Therefore, I’d suggest to SELL EURUSD on any significant rallies like we saw this week. (1.2800 level).

Forex Weekly Outlook September 18 ~ 22, 2017
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Forex Weekly Outlook June 19 ~ 23, 2017
About Henry Liu

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  1. […] for direction… All in all, if we don’t get any more surprises from Spain and “Grexit“, EURUSD is likely to remain range-bound and perhaps slightly higher until the next FOMC […]

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