Australian Inflation Drops Unexpectedlyhttp://www.currencynewstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/slideshow-gallery/au-rba.jpg
Apeil 23, A worse than expected PPI would definitely affect CPI reading… Consider this, if the cost for raw materials drop for the manufacturers, especially in a highly competitive market, wouldn’t it make sense for them to drop the selling prices? If we get lower than expected CPI today, RBA could cut interest rate in the upcoming meeting, which means we could see some strong selling momentum building.
BOJ May Increase Asset Purchaseshttp://www.currencynewstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/slideshow-gallery/japan-bonds.jpg
April 23, Reports circulated that the BOJ would likely hold off on buying longer maturity bonds at this week policy meeting but could increase the size of its asset purchase fund. BOJ policy would not be dictated by market expectations. Market is likely to sell off on the JPY from now until Friday as speculations for further easing of JPY dominates market sentiment… Of course, I’d recommend the best currency combinations possible, perhaps GBPJPY or USDJPY…
Rate Cut Is Imminent For RBA…http://www.currencynewstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/slideshow-gallery/rbagovenorstevens.jpg
April 24, Lower than expected inflation in Australia signs possible central bank action at the next meeting in May. Analysts are speculating that there could be a cut in June as well as May. I believe because of the imminent rate cut and the fact that RBA is holding its rate decision on May 1, 2012, AUD is positioned for a sell-off… Combining the fact that FOMC is releasing its rate decision tomorrow, I believe AUDUSD is the pair to go… I’m looking at SELL on rally, with a minimum target of 1.0150…
United Kingdom Back Into Recession!http://www.currencynewstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/slideshow-gallery/ukrecession.jpg
April 25, GBP is likely to be sold off in the medium to long term, especially when LONG traders realize that with UK’s economy being in a “technical recession”, the BOE will not hike interest rate anytime soon… Also consider the timeline, the next quarterly data will be released in July, so technically GBP could fall for the next 3 months… My view is to SELL GBPUSD on rallies.
US Durable Goods Shows Troubling Signs…http://www.currencynewstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/slideshow-gallery/usdurablegoods.jpg
April 25, When considering the context of today’s FOMC Statement, you can clearly see that housing is depressed and Durable Goods Orders drop… shows further weakness in the U.S. economy, although not enough for the Fed to “act” yet… I’d still be LONG on USDJPY since today’s FOMC takes precedence.
US Facing Slower Job Growth And Persistent Jobless Rate…http://www.currencynewstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/slideshow-gallery/usjobgrowth.jpg
April 26, FOMC indicated that they are not going to start another round of QE unless the economy worsens, by the look of these weekly claims, we are starting to see a gradual increase… As a matter of fact, if we were to see the average going above the 400K per week, Unemployment Rate could go back above 8.5%, which is a huge step backwards… So the key is monitoring these weekly numbers and look at any upcoming events, such as the Advanced GDP data scheduled for Friday…
RBNZ Bollard Warns Against Further Kiwi Strength…http://www.currencynewstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/slideshow-gallery/rbnzbollard.jpg
April 26, I believe we’ll probably see very little strength in NZD for the time being, although the market demand for NZD far exceeds its fundamental value, so RBNZ probably will have very little effect in the long run… I would also look at AUDNZD pair for possible SELL as if the pair rallies, I would have no hesitation to sell as ultimately the situation in NZ should outpace the fundamental outlook in AU.
U.S. Economy Grew At Slower Pace During Q1 2012…http://www.currencynewstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/slideshow-gallery/usperonalspending.jpg
April 27, With Adv. GDP coming at much worse than expectation, traders should be feeling a bit uncertain over U.S. economy, however there are some good take aways as the Personal Consumption beat expectation by 0.6%, the defense spendings decrease to 8.1% (prior 12.1), real private invetories at 0.59% (prior 1.81%), and real exports at 5.4% (prior 2.7%), the GDP is really not all bad; of course, market will shift its focus on next week’s NFP release, which may hold the key to USD trend.
BOJ Disappoints Market…http://www.currencynewstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/slideshow-gallery/japangdp.jpg
April 27, I believe JPY will weaken eventually as what we are seeing today are mostly “Buy on rumor, Sell on news” type of reaction… With USD likely to remain resilient and JPY likely to see more easing from BOJ, I think USDJPY will go back eventually… With that being said, JPY could also remain strong unless the Federal Reserve launches third round of QE, which at the current moment is still uncertain.
SNB Vows To Defend Euro Peg, Again…http://www.currencynewstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/slideshow-gallery/snbjordan.jpg
April 27, I believe SNB is once again reminding the market that EURCHF will stay above 1.2000 and the probability for CHF to gain is very slim… therefore, I’m looking at other CHF pairs, such as USDCHF, GBPCHF, or even AUDCHF for possible LONG trades with a medium timeframe, banking on the chance that we may see a huge gain if SNB raises the peg with Euro to 1.2500 or something… at the very least, if the market cannot push CHF higher, it will push it lower, and our short CHF trades will pay off.
BOJ: No Credibility As A Deflation Fighterhttp://www.currencynewstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/slideshow-gallery/boj.jpg
April 30, Market is watching the 80.00 level closely and if USDJPY is unable to recover, then I think sellers will coming and possibly push this pair down to the 77.00 level… SocGen’s view is definitely echoed in the financial community and the ball is now in BOJ’s hands to rein in JPY bulls. Also understand that market perception is a powerful thing, if left unchecked, we could see another test of the low on USDJPY pair.
Month In Motion – April 2012
May 2, 2012 by Leave a Comment