EURUSD Forecast: Sunny With A Chance Of Upward Breakout…http://www.currencynewstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/slideshow-gallery/euro-up.jpg
October 1, Market released a slew of data out of Europe today for the new week, month, and quarter, and needless to say, the sentiment has been positive. With the exception of UK, we are seeing across the board better than expectation releases, although still in contraction territories for the PMI readings (50 is the medium/neutral point), all are showing signs that the economy is bottoming out, and that the next move is anything but up…
U.S. Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) Could Suprise To The Upside…http://www.currencynewstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/slideshow-gallery/nfp-bernanke.jpg
October 3, US BLS (Bureau Of Labor Statistics) will release its Nonfarm Payroll Employment Report on Friday, and it is probably the single most important NFP release for the new quarter as traders look for signs of improvement after the sobering statement from the Feds two weeks ago that prompted the launch QE3: "The Committee is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions…"
IMF Downgrades World Economic Outlookhttp://www.currencynewstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/slideshow-gallery/world-economic.jpg
October 9, IMF released its world economic outlook report on Monday, downgrading the 2012 outlook to 1.3% for advanced economies, and 3.3% for global economies. Obviously the world economy is slowing down, what’s more alarming with this report is that Spain is showing a difference of -0.7% for 2013, or a contraction of 1.3% in GDP, a huge difference to Spain’s official GDP forecast of -0.5%, and IMF’s own forecast of -0.6% back in July...
Euro Crisis To End In November?http://www.currencynewstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/slideshow-gallery/end-eu-crisis.jpg
October 15, I believe the Euro Crisis is coming to an end soon, especially with the sudden change of tones by both EU and IMF, pleading Germany to offer two years of extension for Greece, and by the looks of it, Greece may just get it. Risk sentiment was further stoked by the potential for a Spanish aid request in November, ending the uncertainty and the ever-so-popular guessing game of when Spain is going to bite the bullet.
Credit Rating Agency Moody’s Issues A “Stay Of Execution” For Spain…http://www.currencynewstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/slideshow-gallery/rajoy-downgrade.jpg
October 17, Credit Rating Agency Moody’s shocked the market yesterday by keeping Spain’s sovereign credit rating at BAA3, the lowest investment grade, instead of junk status as so many analysts have been predicting. This is not only another “too big too fail” scenario in my opinion, but really brings Moody’s integrity into question as over 100% of their ratings actions following an Outlook Negative since 2010 have been downgrades, except of course in this case when a ratings downgrade would trigger a financial tsunami such as with Spain today…
More Easing Expected From Bank Of Japan (BOJ)http://www.currencynewstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/slideshow-gallery/bank-of-japan-easing.jpg
October 23, I guess it is the same with every central bank, they do not want to appear under pressure, but at the same time they want to give the illusion of transparancy. With BOJ, it is particularly difficult because of the Japanese culture and the self-imposed limit on bond purchases, which sometimes keep the market on its toes. With the diplomatic tension with China on the rise and the recent decline in the Japanese economy, I believe BOJ is more likely to ease in this upcoming meeting than ever...
October FOMC Statement Analysishttp://www.currencynewstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/slideshow-gallery/bernan-style.jpg
October 24, Seems to me that the market is going to rally because of the fact that the Feds totally ignored the surprise dip in the September Unemployment Rate to 7.8%; judging from this statement, we are seeing the FOMC is totally unchanged in their views of the economy, thus the likelihood for an early ending of QE3 is not high, despite of the positive data we’ve received lately. Considering also that the Feds are relatively comfortable with the current inflation, I believe the market should have no concerns whatsoever.
When Will Spain Request Bailout?http://www.currencynewstrading.com/wp-content/uploads/slideshow-gallery/rajoy-bailout.jpg
October 31, The question that’s constantly on the minds of currency traders: When will Spain request bailout? Here’s my answer: I think it’s evident that after today’s announcement by Spain’s spokesperson that the banking aid program will commence in early December with the disbursement of the first tranche of funds, there is no way that Rajoy will tip his hand before that, especially considering how Rajoy has been acting lately, he would definitely want to take advantage of market optimism and delay some more.
Month In Motion – October 2012
November 3, 2012 by Leave a Comment