UK Prelim GDP q/q | January 28, 2014 | Currency Trading

Event Details At-A-Glance:
0.7%0.7%0.8%0.3%

UK Prelim GDP q/qUK Prelim GDP is the probably the most tradable GDP release out of the three since it’s the first look at the economic conditions in UK for the final quarter of 2013.  A strong release will add more support for the GBP whereas a weak release could drive GBP weaker.

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4:30am (NY Time) UK Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 0.7% Previous 0.8%
DEVIATION: 0.3% (BUY GBP 1.0% / SELL GBP 0.4%)

The Trade Plan
Since this is the first release of the last quarter GDP for 2013 (Q4 2013), we´re likely to get a huge reaction if we get a surprise today, as most first releases are what the market looks to. Considering the recent negative trend in the Retail Sales figures, we may get an downside surprise release today.

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However, we´ll still be looking to trade the release using our after news retracement method. Our surprise factor is around 0.3% as we´ll look to possibly SELL GBP at 0.4% or worse, and BUY GBP at 1.0% or better.

Historically, if there is a 80% of chance that our S. Factor hits, the market will move up to 50~70 pips within the hour as GDP is a very high impact report.

For more information on my news trading methods: http://www.currencynewstrading.com/how-to-get-started-with-news-trading/

I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: GBPUSD.

 

 

   

Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.

Definition
Prelim GDP q/q from UK, is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measurement of the economy, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate as better economy usually brings higher inflationary pressure…

Thanks,




Currency Pair Stats
Pair2H50+2H50RangeDirectionPN30PN60PN90Spike
GBPCHF82.5%83.3%8297.4%32465730
GBPJPY71.9%50.0%8497.4%39566830
GBPUSD69.3%70.8%7097.4%28425529
EURGBP16.7%20.8%3197.4%11162012
2H-50+ = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. | 2H-50 = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. for the last 2 years | Range = average range in 2 hrs. | Direction = % match following news direction | PN30 / PN60 / PN90 = average pips move before news release in 30, 60, or 90 mins. period | Spike = initial average spike
About Henry Liu

My name is Henry Liu and I am a Forex Trader and Mentor. I help traders achieve consistent income trading Forex while spending less time trading. My focus in trading is a combination of Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, and Market Sentiment. Far too many retail Forex traders concentrate on just one aspect of trading, technical analysis, and ignore everything else; it is my goal (and vision) to educate every trader on how to take advantage of news trading and become more balanced traders.

You can find more information about me on my Google Profile.

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