Recent Analysis

Interest rates too low for too long could cause financial instability: Fed’s Bullard

U.S. interest rates being kept too low for too long could cause financial instability in future and stronger market expectations for a rate rise are “probably good”, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Monday. A relatively tight labor market in the United States may also exert upward pressure on inflation, raising the [...]

Fed likely to hold off on hiking rates until September: Reuters poll

The U.S. Federal Reserve will likely wait until September before raising interest rates again, stretching to nine months the time since its first hike in nearly a decade, as it waits for clear signs inflation is picking up, a Reuters poll found. This is the second time this year that economists have delayed their rate-hike [...]

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CURRENCY OUTLOOK SCORES

 

 

   
 

 

   
 

 

   
 

 

   
 

 

   
 

 

   
 

 

   
 

 

   
scorefundamental outlooktrend
 55 and above  Positive Fundamental Outlook   Up trend
 50 to 54  Neutral Fundamental Outlook   Neutral Trend
 49 and below  Negative Fundamental Outlook   Down trend

Outlook Score is a score assigned to the currency based on economic indicators and high-impact news releases such as: central bank speeches, breaking news, political developments, etc… A score between -3 to +3 is assigned to each scheduled events based on its importance, market focus, and surprise factor. For instance, the Non-farm Payroll should have more impact than the New Home Sales figure in the U.S., but if the New Home Sales comes out 100K more than forecast, it should have equal effect on the USD (as compared to NFP) in the long-term.


The Outlook Score is the summary of all of the individual scores assigned to each news releases that matters, and the score is carried over from month to month… this is based on the idea that fundamental sentiments are also carried over from month to month…


The score is modeled after the PMI (Purchasing Manager’s Index) releases, so we start at 50, and any number above 50 is considered positive, or below 50 as negative:


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