Recent Analysis

Fed Officials Widely Support Yellen’s Timeline For Policy Tightening…

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen surprised the market last week with her “6 months” estimate when asked to define how long will it be after the end of tapering to the first rate hike, and surprisingly, her colleagues tend to agree, and here are their recent comments: (US) Fed’s Bullard (dove, non-voter): Reiterates don’t think policy [...]

Fed Yellen’s Debut: Calculated Response Or Rookie Mistake?

The FOMC meeting on March 19 surprised the market by dropping the quantitative forward guidance (threshold based forward guidances, such as 6.5% unemployment rate and 2.5% CPI in a 6 ~ 12 months forecasted) and moving to a more vague, qualitative guidance that encompasses everything, here’s the paragraph straight out of the FOMC Statement: … [...]

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scorefundamental outlooktrend
 55 and above  Positive Fundamental Outlook   Up trend
 50 to 54  Neutral Fundamental Outlook   Neutral Trend
 49 and below  Negative Fundamental Outlook   Down trend

Outlook Score is a score assigned to the currency based on economic indicators and high-impact news releases such as: central bank speeches, breaking news, political developments, etc… A score between -3 to +3 is assigned to each scheduled events based on its importance, market focus, and surprise factor. For instance, the Non-farm Payroll should have more impact than the New Home Sales figure in the U.S., but if the New Home Sales comes out 100K more than forecast, it should have equal effect on the USD (as compared to NFP) in the long-term.

The Outlook Score is the summary of all of the individual scores assigned to each news releases that matters, and the score is carried over from month to month… this is based on the idea that fundamental sentiments are also carried over from month to month…

The score is modeled after the PMI (Purchasing Manager’s Index) releases, so we start at 50, and any number above 50 is considered positive, or below 50 as negative:

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