Recent Analysis

Forex Weekly Outlook August 14 ~ 18, 2017

Equity indices in the U.S. faced a sharp sell-off pressure as global markets succumbed to risk aversion due to the increasingly hostile rhetoric between President Trump and North Korea. European markets were equally devastated by the sell-off, with the Stoxx 600 headed for its worst week since November. Safe haven currencies like the yen and [...]

Forex Weekly Outlook August 7 ~ 11, 2017

Last week was rather a tightly traded ranged week with the market mostly holding on for the release of Nonfarm Payroll Report on Friday. Although the perception was overall positive, USD still remained weaker on summary approaching yearly low against other majors. However, with ECB and BOE (plus other major central banks) expressing reluctance in [...]

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CURRENCY OUTLOOK SCORES

 

 

   
 

 

   
 

 

   
 

 

   
 

 

   
 

 

   
 

 

   
 

 

   
score fundamental outlook trend
 55 and above  Positive Fundamental Outlook   Up trend
 50 to 54  Neutral Fundamental Outlook   Neutral Trend
 49 and below  Negative Fundamental Outlook   Down trend

Outlook Score is a score assigned to the currency based on economic indicators and high-impact news releases such as: central bank speeches, breaking news, political developments, etc… A score between -3 to +3 is assigned to each scheduled events based on its importance, market focus, and surprise factor. For instance, the Non-farm Payroll should have more impact than the New Home Sales figure in the U.S., but if the New Home Sales comes out 100K more than forecast, it should have equal effect on the USD (as compared to NFP) in the long-term.


The Outlook Score is the summary of all of the individual scores assigned to each news releases that matters, and the score is carried over from month to month… this is based on the idea that fundamental sentiments are also carried over from month to month…


The score is modeled after the PMI (Purchasing Manager’s Index) releases, so we start at 50, and any number above 50 is considered positive, or below 50 as negative:


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