AU Employment Change | May 17, 2017 | Currency Trading News

Event Details At-A-Glance:
37.4K5.2K60.9K25K

The Australian Employment Change release today will provide some volatility for this Asian trading session, especially considering current Australian economy, a strong surprise in the employment sector could end up pushing the currency for at least a couple of hours.

It is also important to look at both Full Time and Part Time employment figures as a high headline figure that are all part-time workers is not considered as positive as full-timers.  Watch how the market reacts first then trade if we get our deviation…

9:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change Forecast 4.5K Previous 60.9K
9:30pm (NY Time) AU Unemployment Rate Forecast 5.9% Previous 5.9%
DEVIATION: 25K (BUY AUD @ +29.5K / SELL AUD @ -20.5K)

The Trade Plan
The deviation that we are looking for is at least of 25K. Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 40~50 pips of movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time. Expect to see the effect of this news to last minimum 45 minutes to 2 hours; typical news effect should last under 2 hours. One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to remain at 5.9%. If we don´t get a conflict with the Employment Change, then we will proceed with the trading plan.

We´ll look to trade this using after news retracement trading method, we´ll wait for the market to retrace and stay out of the market during the release time. If we get a +29.5K of release, our bias will be to BUY AUD against other currencies; if we get a -20.5K of release, our bias will be to SELL AUD against stronger currencies. We´ll only enter after we see a decent retracement from the initial spike and if we get those release numbers…

For more information on my trading methods: https://www.currencynewstrading.com/how-to-get-started-with-news-trading/

I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: AUDUSD.

 

 

   

Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.

DEFINITION
“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”

Thanks,




Currency Pair Stats
Pair2H50+2H50RangeDirectionPN30PN60PN90Spike
AUDJPY40.7%41.7%5194.4%17212735
AUDUSD42.6%75.0%5294.4%13172036
2H-50+ = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. | 2H-50 = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. for the last 2 years | Range = average range in 2 hrs. | Direction = % match following news direction | PN30 / PN60 / PN90 = average pips move before news release in 30, 60, or 90 mins. period | Spike = initial average spike