CA Core Retail Sales | May 19, 2017 | News Trading Strategy

Event Details At-A-Glance:

CA Core Retail Sales is going to provide market volatility for the CAD as Retail sales and CPI are both scheduled to be released at the same time.  With both high impact indicators providing glimpse into one of the most important areas in Canadian economy, any strong surprise today will probably end up driving the CAD for at least a few hours after the release.

Of course, with the USD remaining strong and crude prices continue to drop, despite of OPEC production cuts, I would be very careful in holding long positions on the CAD for long, if anything, I would continue to sell CAD until market sentiment changes.

8:30am CA Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.2% Previous -0.1%
DEVIATION: 0.5% (BUY CAD 0.7% / SELL CAD -0.3%)

The Trade Plan
I´m going to be looking for a deviation around 0.5% for this news. Since the forecast is at 0.2%, a reading of -0.3% would be negative for the CAD and we´ll be looking to SELL CAD; however, if the opposite is true, or at least a 0.7% or better is released, I´ll be looking to BUY CAD.

Let´s trade this release using my after-news retracement method. The idea is to wait for the release, then for market to spike first, and then wait for a decent retracement before getting in. For more details on my trading method:

I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: USDCAD.




Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.

Our focus is on the CA Core Retail Sales release and not the headline Retail Sales release; Retail Sales releases from Canada is a month on month release, and basically it´s a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, and the Core release is the same Retail Sales but excluding most volatile components, Automotive Components, which makes up about 25% and it varies seasonly. A better release generally means more consumer spending, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency. And the CORE reading provides a far more accurate look of the actual economy.


Currency Pair Stats
2H-50+ = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. | 2H-50 = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. for the last 2 years | Range = average range in 2 hrs. | Direction = % match following news direction | PN30 / PN60 / PN90 = average pips move before news release in 30, 60, or 90 mins. period | Spike = initial average spike