CA BOC Interest Rates Decision | May 24, 2017 | Forex News Trade

Event Details At-A-Glance:

CA BOC Interest Rate today is expected to keep rates unchanged as there are practically no chance for another rate action today.  If anything, we should be looking at further easing on monetary policy as last week’s CPI came in at 1.3% y/y headline and Core (Trim) came in at 1.6% y/y.

Considering last Rate statement (Apr 12, 2017) where BOC stated that:

…CPI inflation is now at the 2 per cent target, largely because of the transitory effects of higher oil prices and carbon pricing measures in two provinces, as well as other temporary factors. The Bank’s three measures of core inflation, on the other hand, have been drifting down in recent quarters and wage growth remains subdued, consistent with material excess capacity in the economy. CPI inflation is expected to dip in the months ahead, as the temporary factors unwind, and then return to 2 per cent later in the projection horizon as the output gap closes…

It is almost a given BOC will not act today.  However, in the unlikely event of a RATE CUT, we should see some strong selling action on the CAD and we should go LONG on USDCAD immediately…

Here’s what analysts expect:

10:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Interest Rates Decision Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
DEVIATION: 0.25% ( SELL CAD 0.25%)

The Trade Plan
Most analyst agree that the BOC will keep rates at 0.50%. I´ll be trading this release with a 0.25% deviation using Spike Trading method. In the event of a surprise hike it´s almost guaranteed that we´ll see strong market movement immediately after the release… However, in all reality, BOC is unlikely to surprise the market today, especially considering recent economic data.

For more information on my Spike trading method, please read:

I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: USDCAD.




Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.

BOC Interest Rate Decision is set in a target bandwidth for the overnight rate each month of +/- 0.25% around its target overnight rate. The Bank of Canada does not interfere in the overnight market so long as the overnight rate stays within its target band, but the Bank will use its reserves to lend or borrow in the overnight market to ensure that the overnight rate stays within its announced bandwidth.


Currency Pair Stats
2H-50+ = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. | 2H-50 = % of 50+ pips move in 2hrs. for the last 2 years | Range = average range in 2 hrs. | Direction = % match following news direction | PN30 / PN60 / PN90 = average pips move before news release in 30, 60, or 90 mins. period | Spike = initial average spike