UK CPI y/y 08/18/09

4:30am (NY Time) UK CPI y/y    Forecast 1.5%    Previous 1.8%
ACTION:  GBP/USD     BUY 1.7%    SELL 1.3%

CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households wikipedia).  It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.

Our surprise factor is 0.2%, if the CPI number increases to a surprise at 1.7% then we will BUY of GBP/USD.  If the CPI number decreases to 1.3% or less, we’ll SELL GBP/USD.  Historically, even at a different of 0.1% the market tends to overreact.  If it does hit our S. Factor, there is 80% of chance it will move 50 pips.

NOTE: Based on the BOE Quarterly Inflation Report on August 12, “CPI likely to fall below 1% in autumn 2009; likely at 1.5% level in two years time; might meet target on contant rates”, we’ve gotten a heads up of a possibly worse than expected number here, so we could see some sentiment moving towards selling Sterling prior to the release.  Note the time of this post is 6:35pm and I will be looking for a possible entry to SELL GBP/USD…

Click here to watch the video

UPDATE: I entered at the first retracement on GBP/USD, then also on GBP/JPY.  Market paid out on record 40 pips in less than 50 minutes, watch this video on how I execute this classic retracement trade.