AU Retail Sales release today should be a good tradable release out of Australia, but it’s important to consider the overall market context after RBA rate decision and the quarterly GDP releases scheduled earlier in the week, as those are the reports that set medium to long-term market trend for the AUD… Of course, if we get a strong surprise, market will definitely react in the direction of the surprise for the short-term.
9:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.6%
DEVIATION: 0.5% (BUY AUD 0.9% / SELL AUD -0.1%)
The Trade Plan
The deviation that we are looking for the Australian Retail Sales m/m release is for a minimum of 0.5%. If we get a 0.9% (or better) we´ll look to buy and if we get -0.1% (or worse), we’d look to SELL. There is a high probability of market movement of over 50 pips in the next 2 hours if we get our deviation.
We´ll be looking for an after-news retracement trade and we´ll do the 3 W´s. Wait for the deviation, Wait for the market to move with momentum first, and Wait for a decent retracement. For more information on my trading methods, please read: https://www.currencynewstrading.com/how-to-get-started-with-news-trading/
I’d recommend to trade the Recommended Pairs above as they are based on my CSM and should provide you with an edge by pairing up the best currencies to trade in the event of a good/bad news. Of course, you can also trade the default pair: AUDUSD
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.
“Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders payclose attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.”