We´ll be getting the Canadian Employment Change release figure along with the US Nonfarm Payroll Report. Since 95% of the market is paying attention to the NFP, I’d recommend that we do the same. On an odd chance of having a strong CAD release versus a weak US release (or vice versa), we should see USDCAD move the most, thus it pays to look at both releases…
8:30am (NY Time) CAD Employment Change Forecast 20K Previous 19.4K
8:30am (NY time) CAD Unemployment Rate Forecast 6.7% Previous 6.7%
DEVIATION: 25K (BUY CAD @ 45K / SELL CAD @ -5K)
The Trade Plan
The Canadian Employment Change report will be released at 8:30am sharp today. What I am looking for is a minimum deviation of around 25K, or the difference between the Forecast number (20K) versus the actual release number; if we get a positive 45K of release, we should see demand for the CAD rise, therefore we should BUY CAD against weaker currencies at the time; however, if we get a negative deviation, such as -5K or worse, we should see some weakness in the CAD, and that will be my cue to SELL CAD against stronger currencies at the time.
I´ll also pay close attention to the unemployment rate, which is expected at 6.7%. As long as this number does not conflict with the Employment Changes, we should follow the direction of the news release. If we get a conflict, such as better Employment Changes but higher Unemployment Rate, then we´ll need to look at the context of the market before taking the trade.
I´ll be looking to trade this release using my after-news Retracement Method. To find out more about my trading system, read: https://www.currencynewstrading.com/how-to-get-started-with-news-trading/
I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: USDCAD.
Outlook Score Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.
DEFINITION “Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.”