Canada GDP m/m 11/30/09

8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m   Forecast 0.4%      Previous -0.1%
ACTION: USD/CAD         BUY 0.1%     SELL 0.7%

Today we’ll be trading the Canadian GDP month on month release, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”  As GDP is basically the measurement of the “economy” as a whole and it certainly has a strong impact on the cash rate of the CAD, it’ll be a highly anticipated news event.

We are looking for a +0.7%  (or better) or a 0.1% (or worse) of actual release figure based on the expected 0.4%.  If we do get a 0.7% on the monthly GDP, it would be Canadian Dollar positive and we should look for entries to SELL USD/CAD; if we get a 0.1% release, then we should consider BUYING USD/CAD.

Canadian Dollar has been rangebound lately, largely due to the uncertainty of US Dollar’s direction.  However, with USD on a clear bearish trend, we could expect to see USD/CAD move downward substantially if the release turns out to be CAD positive.