Canada IVEY PMI m/m 01/07/10

10:00am (NY Time) CA IVEY PMI      Forecast 52.2    Previous 55.9
ACTION:  USD/CAD    SELL 55.2    BUY 49.2

We’ll be trading the IVEY PMI from Canada today, it is the equivalent of both ISM PMIs out of the US, where purchasing managers of all sectors of the economy participate in this survey.  As with PMIs, they are considered leading indicators, and a reading of above 50 would be considered an economic expansion. In contrast, a reading below 50 would be considered a contraction of the economy.

Our tradable deviation is 3.0, which has provided a good track record; we need to get either a 55.2 or 49.2 (based on a 52.2 expectation) to take a trade.  I have skipped this release for the past few months due to a conflict in the news schedule.  IVEY PMI is usually tradable before the Canadian Employment Changes and not after or scheduled on the same day.  This should sway public sentiment on Friday if we get a strong reading today; thus, the impact of this release may also be more profound.

DEFINITION

“The Ivey Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers from all sectors of the economy, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Purchasing managers are surveyed on several subjects to produce the index, including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.”