China official manufacturing PMI forecast to reach 18-month high in October
(Reuters) – China’s manufacturing activity in October likely grew at its fastest rate since April 2012, a Reuters poll showed, adding to signs of a stabilization in the world’s No.2 economy as the government readies a series of key economic reforms.
The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) is forecast to reach 51.2 from September’s 51.1, according to the median estimate of 11 economists, remaining well above the 50 point line separating expansion from contraction.
A preliminary PMI survey last week by HSBC and Markit Economics showed that the factory sector grew at its fastest pace in seven months in October.
A firm reading in the official PMI could help put to rest worries that the economy may slow down significantly in the fourth quarter.
“We expect a continued moderate growth improvement in the fourth quarter,” said Wei Li, an economist with Standard Chartered in Shanghai.
Concerns had surfaced after disappointing export figures in September and a one-point drop in the final HSBC/Markit PMI figures for the month from its preliminary estimate.
“I’m expecting both the final HSBC PMI and the official number to be close what the flash was signaling in September, and what the flash signaled again in October,” said Tim Condon, Asia economist at ING in Singapore.
Condon said that bad weather had played a role in the divergence between the initial and final HSBC PMI figures for September.
