Where to Look for Signs Financial Turmoil is Hitting the U.S. Economy

As the banking sector faces turmoil, many economists and investors wonder if the U.S. economy is on the brink of a recession. The key to determining whether this will happen is to examine how the turmoil in the banking sector spills over to Main Street. In this article, we explore some indicators to gauge the potential financial fallout from these events.

Bank Lending

Less lending and tighter loan standards would make it tougher for people to buy cars and homes and harder for businesses to expand and invest. This is why tracking the Fed’s report on assets and liabilities at the nation’s commercial banks (the H.8 report) is crucial. By monitoring consumer, real estate, and commercial loans, this report can explain how lending patterns and deposits at regional banks and the nation’s biggest banks are changing. In addition, the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices is another quarterly survey of up to 80 large domestic banks and 24 U.S. branches of foreign banks that can help to provide insights into lending standards and the demand for loans to businesses and households. If there are indications of a tightening of bank lending standards, this could raise concerns about the economy’s prospects.

Consumer Confidence

While not always perfect, watching consumer confidence can help to signal changes in personal spending. Early indications show that the turmoil in the banking sector is having an effect, as a measure by Penta and CivicScience showed that confidence in the U.S. economy fell by the most since June in the two weeks that ended March 14. The University of Michigan’s March survey of consumers, released Friday, was conducted Feb. 22-March 15, with about 85% of the interviews completed before the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. The data showed no significant impact on confidence, but the final index, out March 31, may provide a fuller picture of consumers’ initial reaction to the bank failures.

Related Facts

• The Federal Reserve’s steep interest rate hikes to stave off inflation had already shown some cracks in the economy before the turmoil in the banking sector.
• High-profile U.S. bank failures followed by a crisis of confidence in Credit Suisse Group have spooked investors concerned about the financial sector’s stability.
• Some indicators mentioned, such as consumer confidence, have retreated in recent months, making deciphering their significance even more challenging.

Key Takeaway

The financial turmoil in the banking sector is a major concern for economists and investors. We can understand how these events affect the U.S. economy by monitoring indicators such as bank lending and consumer confidence. However, it must be noted that deciphering the significance of these indicators may be difficult due to recent trends in their movements.

Conclusion

Economists and investors must keep an eye on key indicators to determine the potential impact of the turmoil in the banking sector on the U.S. economy. By doing so, we can take measures to mitigate risks and potentially avoid a recession.