Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential race throws into question the core assumption in global financial markets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon and follow with further gradual hikes over coming years.
Financial markets swooned after Trump’s win, but such turmoil has stayed the Fed’s hand in the past, including a Chinese stock market slump in 2015 and the aftermath of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union last June.
Investors have tended to favor Trump’s Democratic rival Hillary Clinton as a status quo candidate who would be considered a safe pair of hands at home and on the world stage.
Trump has pledged to tear up or renegotiate international trade agreements, which could set off a wave of protectionism, threatening to stall a tentative global economic recovery. His economic plans call for massive tax cuts that many economists estimate would sharply boost the U.S. budget deficit.
“It raises the odds that the Fed will not move in December,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, of Trump’s victory on Tuesday.
Trump’s win also casts doubt over Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s future. He has accused the Fed of keeping interest rates low to help Democratic President Barack Obama and indicated he might replace Yellen after her term ends in January 2018, leading analysts to speculate on whether she would resign earlier.
Adding to the uncertainty for the Fed and calling its further rate path into question is the lack of detail in Trump’s economic plans.
He has proposed giving states more discretion in spending federal money on health insurance for the poor, but offered little specifics. Trump has also promised cuts in individual and business tax rates, but some economists questioned the assumptions underpinning the plan and a lack of clarity as to how the breaks would be funded.
The Committee for a Responsible Budget said this has made it difficult to evaluate Trump’s proposals, but estimated they could add $5.3 trillion to the federal debt over 10 years.