UK Manufacturing PMI is the first significant release of the month and serves as a leading indicator for UK’s economy. A strong release should add further support to the Sterling, as the market may have found a bottom range for the currency in recent weeks. Traders and investros alike pay attention to this release as surprises may shape the general trend for the currency for the rest of the month. Here is the forecast:
4:28am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI Forecast 49.0 Previous 47.9
DEVIATION: 2.0 (BUY GBP 51.0 / SELL GBP 47.0)
The Trade Plan
We´re looking for a tradable deviation (or the difference between the forecast figure and the actual release figure) of 2.0. Since this is a leading indicator and its impact may hint the future trend of other economic indicators (such as inventory, employment, retail sales, etc..), the market usually reacts to this release with volatility if we get our deviation.
We´ll be looking to BUY GBP if we get a 51.0 or better, or looking to SELL GBP if we get a 47.0 or worse. We´ll use the Retracement Trading Method to trade this release. For more information, read: https://www.currencynewstrading.com/how-to-get-started-with-news-trading/
I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: GBPUSD.
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.
“UK Manufacturing PMI is a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector on various economic activities, including inventory, employment, orders, etc… A higher than 50 reading means expansion, or a less than 50 reading means contraction.”