US Core Retail Sales is usually a very tradable release due to market’s overall focus and it’s long-term implications as strong retail sales would contribute to a stronger GDP reading; however, with relatively little chance for the Fed to hike rates this week, we may not see too much volatility accompanying this release unless we get our tradable deviation…
Here´s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.8%
DEVIATION: 0.5% (BUY USD 0.9% / SELL USD -0.1%)
The Trade Plan
The plan to trade this release is straight forward. We are going to wait for 0.9% release or better to BUY USD, or a -0.1% or worse to SELL USD. If we get a in-between release, we´ll need to look at the pre-release market condition and sentiment in order to make a decision, or just stay out of the market altogether.
We will trade this news release using after news retracement method, I will pay attention to both headline and Core Retail Sales figures, but my focus will be on the Core figure. Remember to use the recommended pair above and verify the pairs to trade 1 minute before the release, or you can just use the default pair of USDJPY or EURUSD.
For more information on my trading method: https://www.currencynewstrading.com/how-to-get-started-with-news-trading/
I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: EURUSD.
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.
“(Retail Sales Core) Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.”