US Existing Home Sales could add some volatility in the greenback; however, with USD consolidating recently due to a string of weak economic releases, even if we were to get a strong figure today, I’d be very careful with a long USD trade at this time…
10:00am Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.23M Previous 5.19M
DEVIATION: 0.4M / 400K (BUY USD 5.63M / SELL USD 4.83M)
The Trade Plan
Because the Housing sector is one of the most fundamental components of the U.S. economy, this release will certainly cause some volatility in the market, especially if our tradable figures (+/- 400K) were hit. With the focus of world on the status of U.S. housing sector, this release may bring about a strong sentiment of risk appetite/aversion if our BUY/SELL trigger is hit…
If our buy tradable deviation is hit, or 5.63M figure is released, we should look to BUY USD after the release. If our sell tradable deviation is hit, or 4.83M figure is released, we should look to SELL USD.
We’ll be looking to trade this release using the after-news retracement trading method. We’ll wait for the release, wait for market reaction, and wait for retracement before jumping in. For more information: https://www.currencynewstrading.com/how-to-get-started-with-news-trading/
I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: EURUSD.
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.
“US Existing Home Sales Measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because large purchases tend to be made by consumers that are optimistic and confident in their financial position. The sale of a home also triggers commissions for real estate agents, and often home owners will purchase goods such as appliances and furniture shortly after purchasing a home. Traders watch this report closely as it’s the month’s first demand-side housing indicator to be released.”