US FOMC Interest Rate decision today is the main focus of the week and considering the rise in market expectations for a rate hike (although not this meeting), we should see some demands for the USD but ultimately we could see no hike until 2017…
2:00pm US FOMC Interest Rate Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
Let’s take a look at the last FOMC Statement as our basis for today’s FOMC Statement.
September 21, 2016 – FOMC Statement Analysis
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year [revised from “has been expanding at a moderate rate”]. Although the unemployment rate is little changed in recent months, job gains have been solid, on average [revised from “Job gains were strong in June following weak growth in May. “]. [DELETES “On balance, payrolls and other labor market indicators point to some increase in labor utilization in recent months.”] Household spending has been growing strongly but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced [revised from “Near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished. “]. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.
Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives [NEW PHRASE]. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action were: Esther L. George, Loretta J. Mester, and Eric Rosengren, each of whom preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. [Mester and Rosengren new dissenters].
Considering the rise in market expectations for a rate hike towards the end of the 2016, there will be some traders trying to price this in today’s trading; however, without seeing anything concrete in recent market data, I would seriously doubt that the Fed to surprise the market. Of course, here is the trade plan for today’s release:
- On a rate hike – I’d BUY USD (USDJPY, USDCAD) and hold on this trade until next week. I believe there will be lots of momentum on a surprise hike today.
- On a unchanged decision – I’d probably stay out of the market. But of course, depend on the actual vote count for dissenting, I would probably lean towards going USD long if we get more than the current 3 dissenters.